Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

151.58 – 105.23

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.9 ±13.3

3313Mechatronics

Season APEX 88Event APEX 56.78Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 54.81Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 39.99Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.9 ±17

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 48.72Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9244Belize IT

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 24.95Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3134The Accelerators

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 31.56Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3313, 3465, 2341

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3313, 3465, 2341

Auto

31.8 22%

Teleop

82.2 56%

Endgame

32.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6026, 9244, 3134

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6026, 9244, 3134

Auto

25.6 25%

Teleop

53.2 52%

Endgame

23.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score151.6pts

Blue projected score105.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.4
Score range: 72–185
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 185.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.9Season APEX262.9

31.8Auto25.6

82.2Teleop53.2

32.3Endgame23.7

43Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	85	24
endgame	31	15
foul	0	0
total	132	54

Result

Final score

132 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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