Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.42 – 135.64

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.3 ±11

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 101.09Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 105.07Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 38.26Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.4 ±12.2

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 53.67Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 45.74Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 36.23Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4256, 2718, 2457

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4256, 2718, 2457

Auto

58.4 24%

Teleop

129.6 54%

Endgame

53.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2183, 6424, 3465

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2183, 6424, 3465

Auto

18.2 14%

Teleop

83.8 63%

Endgame

31.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score244.4pts

Blue projected score135.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.8
Score range: 110–270
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 145.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415.3Season APEX312.4

58.4Auto18.2

129.6Teleop83.8

53.3Endgame31.5

54Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	35
teleop	88	56
endgame	40	20
foul	30	20
total	218	131

Result

Final score

218 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 pts

Match videos

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