Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

258.54 – 151.56

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 82 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 720.3 ±9.8

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 38.06Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 102.92Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 117.56Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.5 ±10.7

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 6.68Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 77.41Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 67.47Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5550, 4522, 3931

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5550, 4522, 3931

Auto

64.1 25%

Teleop

136.0 54%

Endgame

53.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4206, 4766, 1561

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4206, 4766, 1561

Auto

28.2 21%

Teleop

66.5 50%

Endgame

37.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score258.5pts

Blue projected score151.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107
Score range: 126–285
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 145.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

720.3Season APEX511.5

64.1Auto28.2

136Teleop66.5

53.7Endgame37.3

33Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	50
teleop	74	118
endgame	12	47
foul	0	10
total	168	225

Result

Final score

168 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 82 pts

Match videos

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