Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.43 – 201.38

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.3 ±15.3

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 32.31Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6809Aviators

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 43.8Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 3.32Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.6 ±12.8

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 31.14Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 109.14Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 61.1Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3179, 6809, 1209

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3179, 6809, 1209

Auto

20.2 26%

Teleop

38.8 50%

Endgame

18.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4523, 2373, 6391

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4523, 2373, 6391

Auto

34.8 17%

Teleop

117.7 58%

Endgame

49.6 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.4pts

Blue projected score201.4pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -121.9
Score range: 53–227
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.3Season APEX418.6

20.2Auto34.8

38.8Teleop117.7

18.9Endgame49.6

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	64
teleop	41	149
endgame	42	13
foul	0	0
total	109	226

Result

Final score

109 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Match videos

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