Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.25 – 141.85

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 76.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532.6 ±11.7

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 41.05Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 99.41Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 96.79Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.5 ±10.7

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 5.65Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 72.93Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 63.27Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3526, 1939, 2383

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3526, 1939, 2383

Auto

49.6 22%

Teleop

124.7 55%

Endgame

53.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4206, 4766, 1561

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4206, 4766, 1561

Auto

20.8 15%

Teleop

73.3 54%

Endgame

42.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score237.3pts

Blue projected score141.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.4
Score range: 116–263
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532.6Season APEX511.5

49.6Auto20.8

124.7Teleop73.3

53.2Endgame42.9

46Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	49
teleop	30	43
endgame	18	19
foul	15	60
total	114	171

Result

Final score

114 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 76.2 pts

Match videos

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