Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

247.22 – 184.03

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.6 ±11

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 101.12Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 105.23Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 40.87Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.6 ±12.8

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 25.27Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 102.04Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 56.72Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4256, 2718, 4500

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4256, 2718, 4500

Auto

53.9 22%

Teleop

134.0 56%

Endgame

52.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4523, 2373, 6391

/ 100 compat

Projected

184 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4523, 2373, 6391

Auto

32.2 17%

Teleop

115.2 62%

Endgame

37.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score247.2pts

Blue projected score184pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.2
Score range: 159–272
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 526 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.6Season APEX418.6

53.9Auto32.2

134Teleop115.2

52.5Endgame37.1

67Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	45
teleop	152	114
endgame	54	88
foul	5	0
total	279	247

Result

Final score

279 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 pts

Match videos

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