Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

408.02 – 89.33

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

384 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 665.3 ±11.2

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 188.26Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 27.04Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 192.72Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.3 ±15.3

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 32.61Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6809Aviators

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 48.02Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 8.7Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1706, 3160, 4635

/ 100 compat

Projected

408 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1706, 3160, 4635

Auto

84.9 21%

Teleop

216.9 55%

Endgame

95.3 24%

Strengths

· 4635 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3179, 6809, 1209

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3179, 6809, 1209

Auto

20.0 23%

Teleop

41.8 48%

Endgame

24.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score408pts

Blue projected score89.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 318.7
Score range: 64–433
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 139.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

665.3Season APEX214.3

84.9Auto20

216.9Teleop41.8

95.3Endgame24.7

60Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	25
teleop	213	18
endgame	104	4
foul	0	0
total	384	47

Result

Final score

384 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 pts

Match videos

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