Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

238.33 – 251.44

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

244 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 720.3 ±9.8

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 31.58Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 95.81Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 110.94Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.6 ±11

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 99.6Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 103.16Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 48.68Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5550, 4522, 3931

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5550, 4522, 3931

Auto

68.7 29%

Teleop

126.6 54%

Endgame

39.9 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4256, 2718, 4500

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4256, 2718, 4500

Auto

57.9 24%

Teleop

134.7 55%

Endgame

50.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score238.3pts

Blue projected score251.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.1
Score range: 211–278
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 148.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

720.3Season APEX479.6

68.7Auto57.9

126.6Teleop134.7

39.9Endgame50.5

45Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	33
teleop	143	160
endgame	45	49
foul	0	20
total	244	262

Result

Final score

244 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.