Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

409.59 – 168.12

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 731.3 ±9.8

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 184.91Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 33.64Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 191.04Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.5 ±10.7

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 11.12Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 83.3Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 73.7Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1706, 5968, 4635

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1706, 5968, 4635

Auto

79.7 20%

Teleop

234.6 58%

Endgame

92.8 23%

Strengths

· 4635 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4206, 4766, 1561

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.1 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4206, 4766, 1561

Auto

32.3 21%

Teleop

78.5 52%

Endgame

40.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score409.6pts

Blue projected score168.1pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 241.5
Score range: 142–436
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 595 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

731.3Season APEX511.5

79.7Auto32.3

234.6Teleop78.5

92.8Endgame40.2

29Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	60
teleop	184	82
endgame	60	79
foul	15	15
total	359	236

Result

Final score

359 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 pts

Match videos

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