Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.78 – 48.57

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 82.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.4 ±15.6

3247Robopack

Provisional

Season APEX 5Event APEX 39.14Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 34.93Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 21.71Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.8 ±14.5

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 21.71Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 4.29Rank 45Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 22.57Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3247, 2373, 6424

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3247, 2373, 6424

Auto

12.6 13%

Teleop

60.5 63%

Endgame

23.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1561, 9551, 2773

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1561, 9551, 2773

Auto

12.9 27%

Teleop

26.0 53%

Endgame

9.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.8pts

Blue projected score48.6pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.2
Score range: 30–115
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 104.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.4Season APEX307.8

12.6Auto12.9

60.5Teleop26

23.3Endgame9.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	15
teleop	88	78
endgame	41	51
foul	0	0
total	165	144

Result

Final score

165 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 82.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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