Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.26 – 77.97

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 167

Prediction missed · off by 62.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.5 ±12.4

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX -Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 84Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10377Aughtonauts

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX -Rank 46Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 530.3 ±9.9

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX -Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX -Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 45.71Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5968, 3931, 10377

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5968, 3931, 10377

Auto

22.8 20%

Teleop

59.6 51%

Endgame

33.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4635, 4206, 1209

/ 100 compat

Projected

78 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4635, 4206, 1209

Auto

16.2 21%

Teleop

47.0 61%

Endgame

13.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.3pts

Blue projected score78pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.3
Score range: 61–133
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 96.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.5Season APEX530.3

13.1Auto6.6

43.4Teleop30.9

27.4Endgame6.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	54
teleop	81	41
endgame	39	47
foul	5	25
total	152	167

Result

Final score

152 – 167

Prediction missed · off by 62.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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