Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

285.15 – 52.61

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

277 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 580.6 ±11

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 56.61Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 39.35Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 189.19Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.2 ±12.4

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 1.87Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 21.09Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 29.65Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6391, 2457, 1706

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.2 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6391, 2457, 1706

Auto

52.8 19%

Teleop

159.2 56%

Endgame

69.9 25%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4206, 6026, 3179

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.6 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4206, 6026, 3179

Auto

17.9 37%

Teleop

19.1 39%

Endgame

11.7 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score285.2pts

Blue projected score52.6pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 232.5
Score range: 28–310
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 138.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

580.6Season APEX398.2

52.8Auto17.9

159.2Teleop19.1

69.9Endgame11.7

33Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	12
teleop	157	39
endgame	55	26
foul	15	10
total	277	87

Result

Final score

277 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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