Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.86 – 148.15

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 70 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463.3 ±11.9

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 26.32Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 188.41Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8711The Midnight Ostrich Runners

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -2.87Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.6 ±14.7

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 89.81Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 39.31Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3892Roboponies

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 19.03Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5968, 4635, 8711

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5968, 4635, 8711

Auto

52.4 25%

Teleop

115.2 55%

Endgame

42.0 20%

Strengths

· 4635 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2383, 6424, 3892

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2383, 6424, 3892

Auto

33.2 23%

Teleop

78.7 54%

Endgame

34.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score211.9pts

Blue projected score148.2pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.7
Score range: 123–237
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 137.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463.3Season APEX419.6

52.4Auto33.2

115.2Teleop78.7

42Endgame34.5

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	38
teleop	141	119
endgame	54	34
foul	15	45
total	264	236

Result

Final score

264 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 70 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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