Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.58 – 228.9

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.3 ±12.8

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 11.21Rank 45Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 19.64Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 16.73Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.1 ±11.7

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 100.29Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 104.51Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 24.1Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9551, 2359, 10661

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9551, 2359, 10661

Auto

2.4 5%

Teleop

29.8 57%

Endgame

20.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4256, 2718, 4005

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4256, 2718, 4005

Auto

54.9 25%

Teleop

108.3 48%

Endgame

60.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score47.6pts

Blue projected score228.9pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -181.3
Score range: 23–254
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 137.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.3Season APEX413.1

2.4Auto54.9

29.8Teleop108.3

20Endgame60.8

4Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	60
teleop	35	134
endgame	28	48
foul	30	0
total	102	242

Result

Final score

102 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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