Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.25 – 311.65

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.7 ±16.6

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 18.24Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5889Commandobots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 47.8Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 59.21Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576.4 ±12.8

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 31.99Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 96.18Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 183.48Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2341, 5889, 2773

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2341, 5889, 2773

Auto

43.6 35%

Teleop

52.2 42%

Endgame

27.6 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3465, 2373, 1706

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.7 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3465, 2373, 1706

Auto

52.0 16%

Teleop

190.8 60%

Endgame

72.9 23%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125.3pts

Blue projected score311.7pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -186.4
Score range: 101–336
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 135.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.7Season APEX576.4

43.6Auto52

52.2Teleop190.8

27.6Endgame72.9

24Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	55
teleop	45	254
endgame	35	82
foul	5	0
total	125	391

Result

Final score

125 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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