Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.19 – 95.8

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.3 ±13.9

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 45.26Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 32.8Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 3.13Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.1 ±12.7

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 9.73Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 30.69Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 55.38Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4500, 3160, 31

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4500, 3160, 31

Auto

20.8 29%

Teleop

40.1 56%

Endgame

11.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1209, 3179, 2183

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1209, 3179, 2183

Auto

18.2 20%

Teleop

46.2 51%

Endgame

26.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81.2pts

Blue projected score95.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.6
Score range: 56–121
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 136.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.3Season APEX265.1

20.8Auto18.2

40.1Teleop46.2

11.2Endgame26.4

22Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	23
teleop	17	77
endgame	11	18
foul	0	0
total	44	118

Result

Final score

44 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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