Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.53 – 137.51

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.8 ±12.2

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 101.25Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 4.19Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 16.09Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.9 ±12.2

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 44.87Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 47.02Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 45.62Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2718, 1785, 2359

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2718, 1785, 2359

Auto

24.6 20%

Teleop

52.6 42%

Endgame

46.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3526, 6424, 2457

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3526, 6424, 2457

Auto

27.6 20%

Teleop

74.4 54%

Endgame

35.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.5pts

Blue projected score137.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16
Score range: 97–163
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 136.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.8Season APEX252.9

24.6Auto27.6

52.6Teleop74.4

46.6Endgame35

39Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	10
teleop	70	59
endgame	45	31
foul	0	0
total	154	100

Result

Final score

154 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 35 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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