Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

144.02 – 248.07

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

151 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.9 ±14.5

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX -6.23Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6809Aviators

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 48.49Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 101.76Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.9 ±14.3

3892Roboponies

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 14.5Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 183.02Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 50.55Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1806, 6809, 4522

/ 100 compat

Projected

144 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1806, 6809, 4522

Auto

45.5 32%

Teleop

79.8 56%

Endgame

16.4 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3892, 4635, 6391

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3892, 4635, 6391

Auto

66.9 28%

Teleop

117.1 49%

Endgame

54.4 23%

Strengths

· 4635 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score144pts

Blue projected score248.1pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104
Score range: 120–272
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 465 vs event baseline 135.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.9Season APEX525.9

45.5Auto66.9

79.8Teleop117.1

16.4Endgame54.4

6Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	51
teleop	71	207
endgame	49	56
foul	0	0
total	151	314

Result

Final score

151 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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