Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.46 – 113.53

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

278 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457.1 ±12.9

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 51.66Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 104.88Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 36.92Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.7 ±12.2

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 53.29Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 31.59Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 28.65Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2773, 3931, 4500

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2773, 3931, 4500

Auto

38.1 20%

Teleop

110.9 59%

Endgame

38.7 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2183, 3160, 2333

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2183, 3160, 2333

Auto

18.5 18%

Teleop

52.0 50%

Endgame

33.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score193.5pts

Blue projected score113.5pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.9
Score range: 90–217
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 135.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457.1Season APEX334.7

38.1Auto18.5

110.9Teleop52

38.7Endgame33.9

19Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	26
teleop	143	64
endgame	65	53
foul	20	0
total	278	143

Result

Final score

278 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 57 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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