Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.5 – 145.94

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.8 ±13.5

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 69.93Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 10.57Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 188Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.9 ±14.1

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 36.96Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 103.78Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10377Aughtonauts

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 5.2Rank 46Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1561, 2352, 1706

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1561, 2352, 1706

Auto

41.2 16%

Teleop

143.3 55%

Endgame

77.3 30%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2165, 4256, 10377

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2165, 4256, 10377

Auto

46.4 33%

Teleop

65.2 46%

Endgame

29.4 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score268.5pts

Blue projected score145.9pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.6
Score range: 122–293
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 134.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.8Season APEX302.9

41.2Auto46.4

143.3Teleop65.2

77.3Endgame29.4

114Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	13
teleop	113	41
endgame	59	24
foul	0	15
total	229	93

Result

Final score

229 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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