Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.05 – 59.97

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.5 ±12.2

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 30.88Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 6.11Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 33.06Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.3 ±16

3892Roboponies

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 16.24Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 13.97Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 29.76Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3179, 1785, 5550

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3179, 1785, 5550

Auto

14.2 22%

Teleop

21.9 33%

Endgame

29.9 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3892, 1209, 3465

/ 100 compat

Projected

60 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3892, 1209, 3465

Auto

17.8 30%

Teleop

23.3 39%

Endgame

18.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.1pts

Blue projected score60pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.1
Score range: 36–94
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 136.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.5Season APEX248.3

14.2Auto17.8

21.9Teleop23.3

29.9Endgame18.2

18Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	24
teleop	20	32
endgame	19	12
foul	10	0
total	64	68

Result

Final score

64 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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