Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.95 – 127.47

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235 ±13.9

34Rockets

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 11.9Rank 44Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 19.63Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 23.42Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.6 ±14.9

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 44.05Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 40.15Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6809Aviators

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 43.27Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 34, 2341, 4005

/ 100 compat

Projected

55 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 34, 2341, 4005

Auto

14.2 30%

Teleop

20.7 43%

Endgame

12.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6391, 3526, 6809

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6391, 3526, 6809

Auto

37.8 30%

Teleop

59.8 48%

Endgame

27.7 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score55pts

Blue projected score127.5pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.5
Score range: 30–152
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 136.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235Season APEX326.6

14.2Auto37.8

20.7Teleop59.8

12.8Endgame27.7

16Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	32
teleop	12	107
endgame	15	45
foul	5	0
total	42	184

Result

Final score

42 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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