Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.98 – 141.77

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415 ±13.5

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 79.82Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 34.42Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

34Rockets

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 12.74Rank 44Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.9 ±13.5

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 87.01Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 29.34Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 25.42Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2383, 3179, 34

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2383, 3179, 34

Auto

23.1 19%

Teleop

68.4 58%

Endgame

27.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1939, 2165, 2359

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1939, 2165, 2359

Auto

29.5 22%

Teleop

68.5 51%

Endgame

35.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127pts

Blue projected score141.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.8
Score range: 99–170
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 153.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415Season APEX378.9

23.1Auto29.5

68.4Teleop68.5

27Endgame35.8

34Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	20
teleop	60	64
endgame	14	30
foul	0	0
total	102	114

Result

Final score

102 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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