Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.01 – 172.45

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223 ±16.2

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 30.15Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX -4.76Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3247Robopack

Provisional

Season APEX 5Event APEX -2.38Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.1 ±11.9

8711The Midnight Ostrich Runners

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -15.8Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 92.12Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 96.13Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2333, 9472, 3247

/ 100 compat

Projected

23 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2333, 9472, 3247

Auto

6.2 32%

Teleop

-5.0 0%

Endgame

18.1 94%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8711, 2718, 4522

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8711, 2718, 4522

Auto

57.2 33%

Teleop

92.0 53%

Endgame

24.0 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score23pts

Blue projected score172.5pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -149.4
Score range: -1–196
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 133.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223Season APEX562.1

6.2Auto57.2

-5Teleop92

18.1Endgame24

30Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	45
teleop	10	147
endgame	11	73
foul	0	0
total	33	265

Result

Final score

33 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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