Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.99 – 17.92

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.6 ±12.9

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 181.42Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 33.17Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 34.4Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.1 ±14.5

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 0.68Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 15.66Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 1.58Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1706, 4500, 2165

/ 100 compat

Projected

249 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1706, 4500, 2165

Auto

42.1 17%

Teleop

143.1 59%

Endgame

57.5 24%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 31, 2359, 1806

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 31, 2359, 1806

Auto

14.7 56%

Teleop

6.5 25%

Endgame

4.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score249pts

Blue projected score17.9pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 231.1
Score range: -6–273
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 133.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.6Season APEX229.1

42.1Auto14.7

143.1Teleop6.5

57.5Endgame4.9

65Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	8
teleop	167	9
endgame	53	0
foul	5	0
total	282	17

Result

Final score

282 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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