Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.91 – 140.34

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.4 ±14.5

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 99.72Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 17.99Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 16.2Rank 45Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.8 ±12.2

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 16.42Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 104.27Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 19.65Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2373, 2352, 9551

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2373, 2352, 9551

Auto

14.6 11%

Teleop

86.1 67%

Endgame

27.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1209, 3931, 6026

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1209, 3931, 6026

Auto

37.1 28%

Teleop

71.1 54%

Endgame

24.3 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.9pts

Blue projected score140.3pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.4
Score range: 110–164
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 133.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.4Season APEX405.8

14.6Auto37.1

86.1Teleop71.1

27.9Endgame24.3

14Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	38
teleop	33	80
endgame	35	41
foul	0	0
total	77	159

Result

Final score

77 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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