Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.47 – 144.68

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.5 ±13.3

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 55.44Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 40.96Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 46.07Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.3 ±11.7

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 26.4Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 98.79Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 19.49Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2457, 3179, 3465

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2457, 3179, 3465

Auto

12.4 8%

Teleop

96.6 65%

Endgame

40.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5968, 4256, 4523

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5968, 4256, 4523

Auto

35.4 24%

Teleop

75.8 52%

Endgame

35.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score142.5pts

Blue projected score144.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.2
Score range: 118–169
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 133.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.5Season APEX379.3

12.4Auto35.4

96.6Teleop75.8

40.5Endgame35.7

15Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	47
teleop	30	94
endgame	19	30
foul	15	0
total	86	171

Result

Final score

86 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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