Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.79 – 203.62

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410 ±10.5

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 4.53Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 9.12Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 44.14Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476 ±11.7

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 44.1Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 70.1Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 89.42Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4206, 10661, 2183

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4206, 10661, 2183

Auto

8.7 17%

Teleop

28.7 57%

Endgame

12.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6391, 1561, 2718

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6391, 1561, 2718

Auto

40.5 21%

Teleop

104.1 53%

Endgame

52.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57.8pts

Blue projected score203.6pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -145.8
Score range: 34–228
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 133.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410Season APEX476

8.7Auto40.5

28.7Teleop104.1

12.6Endgame52.3

68Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	64
teleop	36	92
endgame	22	54
foul	0	0
total	74	210

Result

Final score

74 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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