Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.56 – 113.2

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

271 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 96.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.8 ±16.2

3892Roboponies

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 5.09Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 166.07Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX -11.6Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.2 ±12.4

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 85.38Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

34Rockets

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 1.99Rank 44Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 25.83Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3892, 1706, 31

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3892, 1706, 31

Auto

35.0 22%

Teleop

85.3 53%

Endgame

40.6 25%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1939, 34, 2333

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1939, 34, 2333

Auto

21.8 20%

Teleop

51.6 48%

Endgame

34.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score159.6pts

Blue projected score113.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.4
Score range: 89–184
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 131.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.8Season APEX452.2

35Auto21.8

85.3Teleop51.6

40.6Endgame34.9

86Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	28
teleop	124	74
endgame	85	63
foul	0	30
total	271	195

Result

Final score

271 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 96.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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