Qualification · Qualification 52
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
283.65 – 45.9
95%5%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
378 – 53
Prediction correct · off by 50.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.3 ±12.4
Season APEX 262Event APEX 158.08Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 34.88Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 90.69Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.5 ±15.6
Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 12.08Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 40.69Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
3247Robopack
Provisional
Season APEX 5Event APEX -6.87Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4635, 3526, 2373
85
/ 100 compatProjected
283.7 pts
~2.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 4635, 3526, 2373
Auto
66.3 24%
Teleop
145.7 52%
Endgame
68.5 24%
Strengths
- · 4635 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1785, 4500, 3247
37
/ 100 compatProjected
45.9 pts
~0.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 1785, 4500, 3247
Auto
9.7 24%
Teleop
18.5 46%
Endgame
11.7 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.47
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score283.7pts
Blue projected score45.9pts
Red win probability95%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 33%
Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 237.7
- Score range
- 23–307
- Upset likelihood
- 5%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
494.3Season APEX192.5
66.3Auto9.7
145.7Teleop18.5
68.5Endgame11.7
14Consistency29
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 76 | 13 |
| teleop | 245 | 8 |
| endgame | 57 | 17 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 378 | 53 |
Result
Final score
378 – 53
Prediction correct · off by 50.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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