Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.81 – 79.91

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

220 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.4 ±10.7

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 91.98Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 78.21Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 9.62Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.3 ±12.8

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 24.58Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 23.53Rank 45Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 31.8Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4522, 4766, 2359

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4522, 4766, 2359

Auto

28.1 16%

Teleop

107.7 61%

Endgame

39.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3160, 9551, 5968

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3160, 9551, 5968

Auto

17.7 25%

Teleop

34.6 49%

Endgame

18.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score179.8pts

Blue projected score79.9pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.9
Score range: 57–203
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 130.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.4Season APEX327.3

28.1Auto17.7

107.7Teleop34.6

39.7Endgame18.6

35Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	19
teleop	140	36
endgame	55	14
foul	0	0
total	220	69

Result

Final score

220 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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