Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.77 – 157.29

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

84 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.5 ±12.9

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 18.75Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 91.3Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8711The Midnight Ostrich Runners

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 1.72Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.3 ±11.1

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 8.26Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 52.76Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 96.27Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2341, 4256, 8711

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2341, 4256, 8711

Auto

31.5 29%

Teleop

60.6 57%

Endgame

15.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1785, 2183, 4522

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1785, 2183, 4522

Auto

43.1 27%

Teleop

81.2 52%

Endgame

32.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.8pts

Blue projected score157.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.5
Score range: 84–185
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 153.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.5Season APEX476.3

31.5Auto43.1

60.6Teleop81.2

15Endgame32.9

43Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	38
teleop	31	37
endgame	0	1
foul	10	0
total	84	76

Result

Final score

84 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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