Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.35 – 32.59

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

63 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 38.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.7 ±13.5

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 55.49Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 54.37Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 29.49Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.8 ±12.4

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 28.16Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX -4.32Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 8.75Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3179, 6424, 2352

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3179, 6424, 2352

Auto

11.3 8%

Teleop

76.9 56%

Endgame

49.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2341, 9472, 4206

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2341, 9472, 4206

Auto

17.9 57%

Teleop

15.5 50%

Endgame

-2.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score139.4pts

Blue projected score32.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.8
Score range: 9–163
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 95 vs event baseline 131.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.7Season APEX345.8

11.3Auto17.9

76.9Teleop15.5

49.9Endgame-2.2

6Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	11
teleop	33	2
endgame	17	9
foul	5	10
total	63	32

Result

Final score

63 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 38.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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