Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.52 – 222.27

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 84.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.7 ±14.4

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 47.05Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6809Aviators

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 30.57Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 90.9Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.7 ±12.8

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 83.31Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 82.78Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 56.18Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2457, 6809, 3931

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2457, 6809, 3931

Auto

37.1 22%

Teleop

89.1 52%

Endgame

44.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2383, 1561, 3465

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2383, 1561, 3465

Auto

41.7 19%

Teleop

133.0 59%

Endgame

49.5 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score168.5pts

Blue projected score222.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.7
Score range: 146–245
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 130.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.7Season APEX438.7

37.1Auto41.7

89.1Teleop133

44.9Endgame49.5

15Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	24
teleop	142	93
endgame	50	31
foul	15	0
total	263	148

Result

Final score

263 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 84.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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