Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.38 – 54.11

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.8 ±15.1

5889Commandobots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 26.3Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 11.33Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 92.75Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.1 ±13.9

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 27.71Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 10.46Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 15.94Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5889, 1209, 4256

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5889, 1209, 4256

Auto

54.1 43%

Teleop

40.0 32%

Endgame

30.9 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4523, 1806, 6026

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4523, 1806, 6026

Auto

26.0 47%

Teleop

24.5 45%

Endgame

4.5 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130.4pts

Blue projected score54.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.3
Score range: 31–153
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 130.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.8Season APEX271.1

54.1Auto26

40Teleop24.5

30.9Endgame4.5

86Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	19
teleop	89	16
endgame	52	15
foul	0	0
total	205	50

Result

Final score

205 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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