Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.33 – 202.86

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.6 ±15.1

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 39.5Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3892Roboponies

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -5.23Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 27.06Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 518.9 ±12.8

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 16.92Rank 45Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 26.43Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 159.51Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2183, 3892, 5968

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2183, 3892, 5968

Auto

17.5 32%

Teleop

20.5 38%

Endgame

16.1 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9551, 3526, 1706

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9551, 3526, 1706

Auto

31.1 15%

Teleop

104.5 51%

Endgame

67.5 33%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.3pts

Blue projected score202.9pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -141.5
Score range: 38–226
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 129.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.6Season APEX518.9

17.5Auto31.1

20.5Teleop104.5

16.1Endgame67.5

84Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	50
teleop	92	135
endgame	33	67
foul	0	5
total	146	257

Result

Final score

146 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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