Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.48 – 94.46

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

128 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.1 ±14.3

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 84.38Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 46.15Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3247Robopack

Provisional

Season APEX 5Event APEX -18.05Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.5 ±13.9

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 27.32Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 61.26Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX 5.88Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4766, 6391, 3247

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4766, 6391, 3247

Auto

13.2 12%

Teleop

57.9 53%

Endgame

37.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2359, 4500, 9472

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2359, 4500, 9472

Auto

7.2 7%

Teleop

70.1 70%

Endgame

22.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.5pts

Blue projected score94.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18
Score range: 70–136
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 131.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.1Season APEX297.5

13.2Auto7.2

57.9Teleop70.1

37.4Endgame22.5

40Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	11
teleop	62	10
endgame	25	1
foul	30	0
total	128	22

Result

Final score

128 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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