Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.7 – 108.55

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 123.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.6 ±9.8

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 80.14Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 19.66Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 45.9Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.8 ±16.3

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 18.6Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 77.39Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6809Aviators

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 12.56Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4522, 2333, 6424

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4522, 2333, 6424

Auto

46.7 31%

Teleop

87.7 59%

Endgame

14.6 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2165, 2373, 6809

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2165, 2373, 6809

Auto

26.0 25%

Teleop

56.5 55%

Endgame

20.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score145.7pts

Blue projected score108.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.1
Score range: 86–169
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 128.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.6Season APEX295.8

46.7Auto26

87.7Teleop56.5

14.6Endgame20.2

34Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	51
teleop	141	140
endgame	77	57
foul	0	0
total	253	248

Result

Final score

253 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 123.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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