Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.93 – 36.5

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

84 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226 ±16.5

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 29.14Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 64.93Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5889Commandobots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 35.86Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323 ±13.7

8711The Midnight Ostrich Runners

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -10.05Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 13.83Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 32.72Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3160, 3465, 5889

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3160, 3465, 5889

Auto

35.4 27%

Teleop

56.5 42%

Endgame

41.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8711, 4206, 2352

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8711, 4206, 2352

Auto

12.0 60%

Teleop

-4.4 0%

Endgame

12.5 62%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.9pts

Blue projected score36.5pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.4
Score range: 14–153
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 130.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226Season APEX323

35.4Auto12

56.5Teleop-4.4

41.4Endgame12.5

72Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	11
teleop	30	10
endgame	17	1
foul	0	0
total	84	22

Result

Final score

84 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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