Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.65 – 228.26

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 18 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.5 ±11.7

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 12.54Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 86.52Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 88.59Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 486.9 ±11

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 99.29Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 94.91Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 34.06Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1806, 4256, 1939

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1806, 4256, 1939

Auto

50.6 28%

Teleop

93.1 51%

Endgame

39.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3931, 2718, 2341

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3931, 2718, 2341

Auto

54.6 25%

Teleop

105.2 48%

Endgame

58.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score187.7pts

Blue projected score228.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.6
Score range: 165–251
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 128.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.5Season APEX486.9

50.6Auto54.6

93.1Teleop105.2

39.7Endgame58.1

51Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	40
teleop	76	124
endgame	28	35
foul	15	0
total	181	199

Result

Final score

181 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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