Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.89 – 210.63

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

172 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 74.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.2 ±13.9

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 2.4Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 16.48Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 72.01Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432.3 ±12.4

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 148.12Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 15.41Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 47.1Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6026, 4005, 1561

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6026, 4005, 1561

Auto

32.7 36%

Teleop

36.0 39%

Endgame

23.0 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4635, 4523, 3179

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4635, 4523, 3179

Auto

49.9 25%

Teleop

105.7 53%

Endgame

45.0 22%

Strengths

· 4635 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.9pts

Blue projected score210.6pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.7
Score range: 68–234
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 451 vs event baseline 126.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.2Season APEX432.3

32.7Auto49.9

36Teleop105.7

23Endgame45

14Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	49
teleop	89	148
endgame	38	82
foul	15	0
total	172	279

Result

Final score

172 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 74.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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