Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.73 – 154.31

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 73.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256 ±14.5

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 36.91Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 23.29Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

34Rockets

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 16.53Rank 44Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.3 ±10.5

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 61.34Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 32.79Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 60.18Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2773, 1209, 34

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2773, 1209, 34

Auto

17.6 26%

Teleop

33.2 48%

Endgame

18.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4766, 2457, 2383

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4766, 2457, 2383

Auto

21.4 14%

Teleop

84.8 57%

Endgame

43.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76.7pts

Blue projected score154.3pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.6
Score range: 55–176
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 125.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256Season APEX516.3

17.6Auto21.4

33.2Teleop84.8

18.1Endgame43.7

77Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	37
teleop	18	170
endgame	17	70
foul	0	0
total	52	277

Result

Final score

52 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 73.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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