Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.66 – 76.3

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.2 ±15

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX 22.44Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10377Aughtonauts

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX -6.07Rank 46Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 78.29Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.4 ±15.3

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 24.93Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 33.19Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6809Aviators

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 18.18Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9472, 10377, 2373

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9472, 10377, 2373

Auto

13.6 13%

Teleop

73.0 70%

Endgame

17.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2359, 2183, 6809

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2359, 2183, 6809

Auto

5.6 8%

Teleop

48.4 67%

Endgame

18.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.7pts

Blue projected score76.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.4
Score range: 53–118
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 126.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.2Season APEX266.4

13.6Auto5.6

73Teleop48.4

17.3Endgame18

56Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	19
teleop	22	54
endgame	25	35
foul	0	0
total	67	108

Result

Final score

67 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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