Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.74 – 77.95

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

92 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.4 ±13

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 12.08Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 62.83Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 15.83Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.4 ±15.1

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 9.61Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3892Roboponies

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 8.43Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 59.91Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4206, 3465, 2165

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4206, 3465, 2165

Auto

17.0 20%

Teleop

50.6 59%

Endgame

18.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10661, 3892, 4500

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10661, 3892, 4500

Auto

6.2 8%

Teleop

47.3 60%

Endgame

25.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.7pts

Blue projected score77.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.8
Score range: 55–114
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 127.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.4Season APEX313.4

17Auto6.2

50.6Teleop47.3

18.4Endgame25.4

75Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	13
teleop	37	26
endgame	29	5
foul	0	5
total	92	49

Result

Final score

92 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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