Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.09 – 151.43

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 519.5 ±11

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 161.75Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 19.31Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 9.03Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.7 ±13.5

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 30.67Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 21.84Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 98.92Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1706, 5968, 1785

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1706, 5968, 1785

Auto

28.6 15%

Teleop

112.2 57%

Endgame

55.4 28%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2352, 3160, 2718

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2352, 3160, 2718

Auto

24.0 16%

Teleop

68.8 47%

Endgame

54.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score190.1pts

Blue projected score151.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.7
Score range: 128–213
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 125.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

519.5Season APEX329.7

28.6Auto24

112.2Teleop68.8

55.4Endgame54.3

96Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	35
teleop	107	53
endgame	74	40
foul	0	30
total	222	158

Result

Final score

222 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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