Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.9 – 86.53

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.8 ±11.7

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 39.68Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 87.85Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 2.37Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.1 ±11.7

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 20.07Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 48.3Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 18.16Rank 45Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6391, 1939, 6026

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6391, 1939, 6026

Auto

22.9 18%

Teleop

81.1 65%

Endgame

21.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5550, 6424, 9551

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5550, 6424, 9551

Auto

14.3 18%

Teleop

34.5 44%

Endgame

30.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.9pts

Blue projected score86.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.4
Score range: 64–153
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 125.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.8Season APEX393.1

22.9Auto14.3

81.1Teleop34.5

21Endgame30.3

21Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	20
teleop	57	35
endgame	41	25
foul	15	5
total	171	85

Result

Final score

171 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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