Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.44 – 146.37

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.6 ±15.3

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 34.89Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3247Robopack

Provisional

Season APEX 5Event APEX 3.07Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 158.48Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.2 ±12.9

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 94.86Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 11.74Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 39.77Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1806, 3247, 4635

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1806, 3247, 4635

Auto

42.0 23%

Teleop

94.5 51%

Endgame

48.2 26%

Strengths

· 4635 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4256, 31, 2457

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4256, 31, 2457

Auto

29.1 20%

Teleop

86.0 58%

Endgame

33.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score196.4pts

Blue projected score146.4pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.1
Score range: 123–219
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 126.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.6Season APEX297.2

42Auto29.1

94.5Teleop86

48.2Endgame33.3

57Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	40
teleop	39	54
endgame	15	5
foul	5	0
total	118	99

Result

Final score

118 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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