Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.16 – 43.64

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254 ±13.3

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 11.84Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 29.76Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 61.56Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.1 ±12.9

8711The Midnight Ostrich Runners

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -5.26Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 22.03Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 26.87Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3526, 2341, 1561

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3526, 2341, 1561

Auto

20.0 20%

Teleop

57.5 56%

Endgame

24.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8711, 2333, 1209

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8711, 2333, 1209

Auto

25.9 69%

Teleop

1.8 5%

Endgame

9.7 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.2pts

Blue projected score43.6pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.5
Score range: 21–126
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 127.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254Season APEX269.1

20Auto25.9

57.5Teleop1.8

24.4Endgame9.7

82Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	11
teleop	66	2
endgame	46	1
foul	0	0
total	157	14

Result

Final score

157 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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