Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.03 – 52.82

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 68.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 533.5 ±11.7

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 101.98Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 22.47Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 66.58Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.7 ±15.8

34Rockets

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX -13.51Rank 44Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 54.19Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5889Commandobots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 12.14Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3931, 4005, 2383

/ 100 compat

Projected

191 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3931, 4005, 2383

Auto

50.9 28%

Teleop

101.0 55%

Endgame

30.4 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 34, 4522, 5889

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 34, 4522, 5889

Auto

45.6 83%

Teleop

5.9 11%

Endgame

3.6 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score191pts

Blue projected score52.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 138.2
Score range: 30–214
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

533.5Season APEX457.7

50.9Auto45.6

101Teleop5.9

30.4Endgame3.6

0Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	64
teleop	60	93
endgame	64	25
foul	0	5
total	188	187

Result

Final score

188 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 68.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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