Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109.07 – 59.94

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 61 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 340.2 ±14.9

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 65.36Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6809Aviators

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 3.25Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 40.46Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.6 ±15

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 7.2Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 26.89Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 25.85Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2718, 6809, 3179

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2718, 6809, 3179

Auto

10.5 10%

Teleop

46.7 43%

Endgame

51.1 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2352, 4523, 2773

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2352, 4523, 2773

Auto

1.9 3%

Teleop

23.3 38%

Endgame

36.8 59%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109.1pts

Blue projected score59.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.1
Score range: 38–131
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 124.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

340.2Season APEX243.6

10.5Auto1.9

46.7Teleop23.3

51.1Endgame36.8

117Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	23
teleop	101	40
endgame	47	21
foul	0	15
total	192	99

Result

Final score

192 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 61 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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